Real World Assets is the next trend
Listen, something interesting is happening in crypto right now. Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election has completely flipped the script on how Wall Street views crypto. Think about it: In 2017, during Trump's first term, Bitcoin was still that weird internet money nobody quite understood. Now? The same guy who once tweeted that he's not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is promising to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve and ensure banking access for crypto companies. Wild, right?
We're not just talking about typical market noise—this is a fundamental shift in how institutions approach crypto investments. Major investment firms are rewriting their entire crypto investment theses based on the anticipated regulatory environment under the next Trump administration. When companies like BlackRock and Fidelity start adjusting their strategies, you know something big is brewing.
Let's cut through the noise and figure out what's actually possible, what's pure hopium, and what you should watch for in the coming months.
Trump's Stance on Crypto: Three Main Bullish Arguments
Think Trump's stance on crypto is just campaign talk? Let's dig into his three main takes that keep the crypto market buzzing.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: A $35 Trillion Problem Solved with Bitcoin
The most radical proposal in Trump's crypto agenda comes straight from Senator Cynthia Lummis's Bitcoin Act of 2024. The plan tackles America's $35 trillion debt problem with an unprecedented solution: accumulate between 200,000 to 1 million BTC over five years into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
The mechanics are fascinating. Instead of printing new money, the plan leverages a revaluation of existing Federal Reserve gold certificates. The price difference from this revaluation would fund Bitcoin purchases, effectively creating a gold-backed pathway to accumulate BTC. The bet? That in twenty years, Bitcoin's appreciation could offset up to 50% of today's national debt. With Republicans controlling both House and Senate, this isn't just theoretical—it's a real possibility come January.
Trump's also pushing an "America First" angle in mining, aiming to make future Bitcoin "MADE IN THE USA." This focus on domestic mining could reshape global hash rate distribution and America's role in securing the network.
Deregulation and Fresh Faces: Cleaning House at the SEC
Trump isn't just talking about making America the "crypto capital of the planet" – he's naming names. Gary Gensler? Out. Instead, think Paul Atkins, a former SEC member who actually gets crypto. Then there's David Sacks as "AI and Crypto Czar" and Howard Lutnick (yeah, the Cantor Fitzgerald guy who manages USDT reserves and holds "hundreds of millions" in Bitcoin) as Secretary of Commerce.
Trump’s plan includes establishing clear frameworks for self-custody rights, regulatory clarity, and potential capital gains tax elimination for U.S.-issued cryptocurrencies. Though some of these are still in the "wouldn't it be nice" phase.
Fed Cuts Key Interest Rates: Money Printer Go Brrr
Trump's economic agenda sets up a perfect storm for crypto markets. Let's be real, Trump's economic plans—either crypto-specific or general—mean one thing: the money printer's going to work overtime. His corporate tax cuts and reindustrialization program (moving manufacturing back to the US) will need funding – lots of it. Add an escalating tariff war with China, where both nations will likely resort to monetary stimulus to protect domestic markets.
In crypto terms? That's like pouring gasoline on a fire. Every time governments crank up the printing press, crypto typically sees green candles. Sure, it's all fun and games until inflation gets too spicy, but in the short term? The market usually loves it.
Pinch of Salt: Trump’s History with Crypto
Before we get too excited about Trump's crypto promises, let's take a reality check. Trump's relationship with crypto has been... complicated, to say the least.
The "Bitcoin Is a Scam" Era (2017-2021)
During his first term, Trump wasn't exactly crypto's biggest fan. In June 2019, he famously tweeted: "I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air." The price of Bitcoin dropped 10% within 48 hours of that tweet. His Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, went even further, calling crypto a "national security issue" and pushing for stricter regulations.
But it wasn't just talk. The Trump administration's actions consistently showed skepticism toward crypto:
- The SEC rejected every Bitcoin ETF application between 2017 and 2021.
- FinCEN proposed strict regulations on self-hosted wallets in December 2020.
- The DOJ's cryptocurrency enforcement framework focused heavily on illegal uses.
- Operation Hidden Treasure launched to track crypto tax evasion.
The Convenient Conversion (2021-2024)
Trump's crypto "evolution" seems to align suspiciously well with market opportunities. In December 2022, he launched his NFT collection, making nearly $4.5 million in sales. The same guy who called crypto "scam" suddenly became quite comfortable shilling JPEGs.
Here's what should make crypto investors cautious:
- Trump's policy positions often shift dramatically (remember his stance on lockdowns pre and post-COVID?).
- His administration's key financial appointees (Jerome Powell, Steven Mnuchin) were notably crypto-skeptic.
- The proposed Bitcoin Reserve plan requires Congressional approval, not just executive orders.
- His "America First" mining policy could actually create new regulatory hurdles for international crypto operations.
The Bottom Line
Could Trump become crypto's unexpected ally? Sure. But banking on campaign promises is like trading based on Twitter sentiment—exciting but risky. The crypto market has matured beyond needing or wanting a "savior." What it needs is regulatory clarity and stable growth, regardless of who provides it.
Reality Check: Projections and Scenarios
Let's get real about what could actually happen when Trump takes office. Here's a look at three possible scenarios—from "alright" to "moon" to "he lied."
Base Scenario: Campaign Promises Mostly Meet Reality
Think of this as the "politics as usual" scenario. Trump delivers just enough crypto-friendly moves to say he kept his promises, but nothing revolutionary. Instead of a full Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, we get a watered-down version—maybe a national Bitcoin fund that HODLs what it has but doesn't actively buy more.
The real action happens at the state level. Texas, for example, has already filed a bill to create its own "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." But let's be honest—even Texas's $15 billion in reserves isn't enough to move Bitcoin's needle significantly.
Meanwhile, the real growth drivers remain unchanged:
- Steady ETF inflows
- Corporate adoption (looking at you, MicroStrategy)
- State-level mining programs
- Investment fund participation
Price target: Bitcoin likely hits $150k-$250k in 2025, reaching 20-30% of gold's market cap. Not bad, but not exactly "to the moon" either.
Bullish Scenario: America Goes All In
Here's where it gets spicy. The U.S. actually creates that Strategic Bitcoin Reserve through one of two paths:
- Trump drops an Executive Order, followed by Congressional funding approval.
- Cynthia Lummis's bill makes it through the full legislative process.
Both routes need Congress on board, but the executive order path could fast-track federal regulations before states like Texas jump in with their own programs.
If this plays out, Bitcoin doesn't just moon—it transforms into a legitimate world reserve currency. Countries start accumulating it openly or on the down-low, creating persistent demand. Those famous four-year Bitcoin cycles? They fade away as the price stabilizes at much higher levels.
Price target: Bitcoin could touch $1 million during Trump's term, with its market cap matching gold's.
Bearish Scenario: When Politics Gets Weird
Plot twist: What if it was all just campaign talk? Trump's got a history of... let's call it "evolving positions." Maybe he gets distracted by trying to buy Greenland or starts a Twitter war with Canada. Or he just reverts to his "Bitcoin is a scam" stance once again.
Some other potential party poopers:
- Appointed officials either step back or prove ineffective.
- Inflation comes back with a vengeance, blocking rate cuts.
- AGI emerges and either cracks Bitcoin's code or decides humans are optional (only half-joking on this one).
Price target: Either we've already seen the top at $108,135, or we get a brief "inauguration pump" before diving into another crypto winter.
Key Things to Watch When Trump in the Office
Let's move past the hype and focus on what really matters. Here are the critical indicators that will show whether Trump's crypto promises are becoming reality or remaining Twitter fodder.
Follow the Appointments, Not the Announcements
Sure, names like Paul Atkins and Howard Lutnick sound great for crypto. But Washington has a funny way of transforming bold picks into bureaucratic paperweights. Watch for:
- Who actually gets confirmed by the Senate
- Their first public statements after taking office
- Early regulatory decisions and policy directions
- Who they bring into their teams (deputy appointments often matter more than the headlines)
The Critical First 100 Days
The first three months will set the tone. History shows that presidents either make their big moves early or get bogged down in the D.C. swamp. Keep an eye on:
- Executive orders related to crypto regulation
- Initial guidance to federal agencies
- Early interactions with the crypto industry
- Priority placement of crypto initiatives versus other agenda items
Congress: Where Promises Meet Politics
Remember: Trump can tweet all he wants, but meaningful change needs Congressional backing. Watch these signals:
- Republican unity on crypto legislation (party infighting could kill momentum)
- Committee assignments for crypto-friendly legislators
- Budget allocations for any proposed programs
- The pace of legislative hearings on crypto issues
Building "Crypto America"
Trump's "make Bitcoin American again" vision requires more than just talk. Look for concrete steps:
- Tax incentives for U.S.-based mining operations
- Infrastructure development in crypto-friendly states
- Banking regulation changes to support crypto companies
- International trade policies affecting crypto businesses
The Bitcoin Mining Chess Game
If Trump's serious about making Bitcoin "MADE IN THE USA," watch for:
- Energy policy changes favoring mining operations
- Federal land use policies for mining facilities
- State-level coordination on mining initiatives
- Response to other countries' mining policies
The Hidden Signals
Sometimes the real action happens where you least expect it:
- Treasury Department guidance memos
- Federal Reserve working papers
- State-level regulatory coordination
- International trade agreement modifications
The key? Don't get distracted by the noise. Focus on actual policy changes, not just promises. In crypto, like in politics, actions speak louder than tweets.
Final Words
Looking beyond Trump's promises and market reactions, something bigger is happening in the crypto space. The narrative has shifted from "if" to "how" crypto integrates into the global financial system.
Consider this: In 2020, institutional investors held roughly $15 billion in crypto assets. By 2024, that number hit $150 billion, and this growth happened during what many called a "crypto winter." The institutional adoption trend transcends political cycles, with or without Trump's influence.
What's really at stake isn't just policy changes—it's America's position in the emerging digital economy. China already has 0.84 million crypto mining rigs running despite the ban. Kazakhstan hosts 20% of global Bitcoin mining. The race for digital asset dominance is happening regardless of who sits in the White House.
The smartest play? Watch the infrastructure development, not just the political theater. States like Texas and Wyoming are already building crypto-friendly frameworks, drawing over $10 billion in mining investments during the past two years. These local initiatives might end up being more important than federal policies.
Remember: Presidents come and go, but innovation is unstoppable. Whether Trump's crypto vision materializes or not, the digital asset ecosystem will keep evolving. The only question is which players—and which countries—will lead the way.
About Binaryx
Funny enough, this article comes from a team that, like Trump, has something to do with real estate – though we work with making it digital rather than building towers. Binaryx explores how blockchain can transform traditional real estate investment through tokenization.
Operating under Wyoming's W.S. SF0038 law, Binaryx creates a separate LLC for each property, with blockchain tokens representing ownership shares. When investors buy tokens, they become legitimate co-owners of these LLCs and can participate in property management through a DAO structure.
Currently active in Bali, Montenegro, and Turkey markets, Binaryx demonstrates how blockchain technology can make real assets more accessible and manageable – regardless of which way the political winds blow.
Learn more on Binaryx Platform.
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